Behind the Move
Why the market moved — explained
Why the market moved — explained.
Issue #12 · 26 Sep 2026What Is the Bond Market Pricing at 5%?US Treasury yields have broken back above 5%. The bigger question isn't why yields are rising — but what the bond market thinks happens next.Issue #11 · 26 Sep 2026Why Did the Yen Fall After the BOJ Raised Rates to 1.25%?A fully priced-in hike, two dissenting votes and cautious guidance — why USD/JPY rose above ¥157 even as Japan's rates went up.Issue #10 · 19 Sep 2026The Fed Hiked. So Why Is the 10-Year Yield Back at 5%?The Fed finally moved — but the bond market didn't back away from 5%, giving us a clearer picture of what investors demand from long-term US debt.Issue #9 · 11 Sep 2026The Hot CPI Paradox: Why Yields Fell and Gold RoseWhen inflation comes in hot but bond yields fall, the market may be telling you something more important than "rates are going higher."Issue #8 · 10 Sep 2026The Treasury Is Buying Bonds. So Why Are Yields Rising?A $4 billion buyback program meets a $30 trillion bond market — and the market wins.Issue #7 · 5 Sep 2026When Good News Isn't EnoughThe Dollar can have a supportive story without being ready to break higher.Issue #6 · 29 Aug 2026The Fed Didn't Hike. So Why Did the Dollar Rally?Markets don't need a rate change to reprice a currency. They only need their expectations to change.Issue #5 · 26 Aug 2026The Jobs Revision Doesn't Move the Dollar. The Regime Does.Why the same employment revision can produce very different reactions in FX.Issue #4 · 23 Aug 2026When the Market Finally Believes the StoryA market can ignore a narrative for days — until something gives it a reason to act.Issue #3 · 14 Aug 2026Why Some Economic Data Moves Markets — And Some Doesn'tThe question isn't whether the number was good or bad. It's whether the number changed anyone's expectations.Issue #2 · 7 Aug 2026When the Surprise Changes the PictureUS payrolls fell 23,000 against +85,000 expected. The lesson isn't that the number was negative — it's how far it landed from what markets had spent all week pricing in. That gap is why the surprise matters more than the number.Issue #1 · 1 Aug 2026Why Did AUD Fall After Softer-Than-Expected Inflation?A softer Australian inflation print sent the Aussie lower — but price held key support, and the real story is a repricing of expectations, not a change of course at the RBA.